Andhra Pradesh Assembly Election Result: Chandrababu Naidu to take oath as CM on June 9; full list of winners - CNBC TV18 (2024)

N Chandrababu Naidu will return to power for the second time in Andhra Pradesh. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo will take the oath of office on June 9. The National Democratic Alliance, which includes TDP, BJP, and Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena, has won 164 of the 175 seats. YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's Yuva Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) leads in 15.

The TDP won 135 seats, followed by the JSP (21) and the BJP (8). The YSRCP was reduced from a brute 151-seat majority in 2019 to just 11 in 2024.

AP went to the polls in a single phase, the fourth, on May 13 for both the Lok Sabha and Assembly. This election is particularly significant as it marks a shift in power dynamics, with the incumbent Chief Minister facing a strong challenge from the opposition.

In the 2019 elections, the YSRCP achieved a landslide victory, bagging 151 seats and propelling Reddy to the Chief Minister's office. This victory was largely attributed to the party's effective campaign strategy, strong anti-incumbency sentiment, and the popularity of Reddy's welfare schemes. In stark contrast, the TDP was reduced to a mere 23 seats, while Jana Sena managed to secure just one seat. The BJP and Congress failed to win a single seat in this southern battleground.

Rewind to the 2014 election, where the TDP, in alliance with the BJP, stormed to power with a combined total of 106 seats (TDP 102, BJP 4), leaving the YSRCP trailing with 67 seats.

What changed in five years?

Here are five factors that may have led to public dissatisfaction with Jagan Mohan Reddy's tenure:

1. Financial Strain and Unfulfilled Promises: Andhra Pradesh is grappling with a massive debt of Rs 13.5 lakh crore, worsened by Reddy's extensive welfare schemes, "navaratnalu" (nine gems). While these initiatives were popular in past elections, they must address broader concerns such as inadequate infrastructure, unreliable power supply, lack of drinking water, high electricity bills, and soaring prices of essential commodities. Unfulfilled promises of job creation have also contributed to rising unemployment and public discontent.


2. Backward Classes Outreach: Jagan Mohan Reddy's policies aimed at the backward classes have faced significant criticism. His administration's efforts included various sops and retaining a 4% reservation for Muslims. However, his refusal to extend similar benefits to the numerically significant Kapu community, a politically influential community in Andhra Pradesh, has fueled resentment, with opposition labelling these decisions as "minority appeasem*nt." This has had a significant impact on the political dynamics of the state.


3. Candidate Selection Issues: Reddy's strategy in selecting candidates for the simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections sparked discontent within the YSRCP. Anticipating anti-incumbency, he replaced or relocated several sitting MLAs, dropping 14 sitting MPs and 37 MLAs from the candidate list. This led to widespread dissatisfaction among leaders and cadres, prompting defections to rival parties.


4. Sympathy Wave for Chandrababu Naidu: Chandrababu Naidu's arrest in September 2023 over an alleged scam generated substantial sympathy for the veteran politician. Naidu's imprisonment spurred protests and public outcry, bolstering his support base. His son, Nara Lokesh, also galvanized support for the TDP with his 'padayatra' (foot march), a traditional political campaign strategy in India, enhancing the party's appeal.


5. Strategic Alliances and Star Power: The TDP's resurgence is attributed to strategic alliances and Pawan Kalyan's star power as leader of the Jana Sena Party. Kalyan's substantial fan base and solidarity with Naidu during his imprisonment resonated with voters, painting a picture of unity and resilience in the face of adversity. The NDA alliance, led by the TDP and including the BJP, also benefited from the BJP's involvement, consolidating the Kamma-Kapu votes, which was crucial for their potential success.